Russia: Goldman estimates 2022 GDP decline of 10%, Barclays of 12.4

(Teleborsa) - Goldman Sachs further downgraded Russia's growth estimates in 2022 from -7% to -10% . About half of that reduction is due to the fact that export data suggests that Russian exports are more strongly disrupted than analysts initially assumed, due to the new Western sanctions, and now they predict that exports will decrease by 20%. sequentially in the second quarter of 2022 and 10% for the year in total. "Russian exports, with a few exceptions, are not limited de jure, and therefore we assume that they will recover in the second half of 2022 - writes the US investment bank - While Russia is likely to lose its favored nation status both in the United States and the EU, we believe that the concentration of Russian exports in raw materials will mainly lead to trade diversion rather than destruction ”.

Goldman Sachs continues to think there will be a slow resumption of growth in 2023 and 2024 , with growth of 2.4% in 2023 and 3.4% in 2024, when Russia holds the next presidential elections and fiscal policy. it will likely be conducive to growth. This forecast also takes into account Russia's lesser international interconnection than many other countries. "Although we believe that not being part of international supply chains is a long-term negative factor for Russian growth, it reduces the impact of import restrictions - it is explained - Much of the Russian economy operates with rather marginal shares of imports compared to to total purchases ". A different view comes from

 

Barclays , which has released one of the most negative outlooks so far for the country led by Vladimir Putin: the British bank expects a contraction of 12.4% in 2022 and a further decline of 3.5% the following year . "Due to the current geopolitical conditions, we assume that the sanctions will last a long time - the economists said in a statement - The economic slowdown will be gradual and will accelerate by mid-2022, as the consequences of the sanctions will be fully transmitted to the economy". "We expect the economic downturn to be driven by falling private consumption, investment and imports," they added.

However, the two banks are in agreement not to foresee significant impacts on spending needs. Despite revised import and export forecasts, Goldman Sachs expects the current account account in 2022 to remain broadly unchanged at a record $ 205 billion. "The dynamics of the current account in this crisis will be different from the previous declines, which were accompanied or triggered by the drop in the prices of raw materials - it is emphasized - We instead expect a contraction in domestic demand and imports even more than in the previous crises, while export prices increased significantly". In the absence of further trade restrictions and with high commodity prices, Barclays believes Russia will be able to finance its main spending needs .

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